For the time being, you can search and download extensive
weather and climate reports as well as raw data sets from the websites of NOAA
and NASA and I emphasize: for the time being. Sadly, such information is
no longer available from the EPA. I make no predictions about the availability
of this information next December from any U.S. Government agency.
According to NASA, 2017 is predicted to be the second
warmest year on record, exceeding 2015, when a “super” El Nino event was
starting and right behind 2016, when this event was tapering off. In the
past, when the Pacific Ocean currents were no longer causing heat to be
released into the atmosphere, global temperatures would usually drop, but not
this time around.
During October, high temperature records were broken in all
six New England states and eastern Canada.
According to the Weather Channel, NOAA’s data show that
“Swaths of eastern Africa, eastern Asia, the adjacent Indian Ocean, the central
and western Pacific Ocean, the Iberian Peninsula, eastern Asia, and eastern
South America have had a record warm January-October 2017.”
In the Pacific Northwest, Seattle and Portland had record
high temperatures: 104 and 107 degrees F, respectively. Southern Europe was
gripped by hot spells, one of which was labelled “Lucifer”. Hundreds of
wild fires scorched Portugal and northern Spain in October alone, killing
dozens.
Back in September, an article in the LA Times quoted an
official of the National Interagency Fire Center who was stunned that the fire
season had continued into September. As I write this, half way into December,
large swaths of outlying Los Angeles are burning, despite the heavy snows of
the previous winter and the break from the long lasting drought, creating a
hellscape, pictures of which friends of mine from the LA area are posting on
Facebook.
A recent article in the Proceedings of the National Academy
of Sciences stated quite bluntly that “. . . human-caused climate change caused
over half of the documented increases in fuel aridity since the 1970s and
doubled the cumulative forest fire area since 1984. This analysis suggests that
anthropogenic climate change will continue to chronically enhance the potential
for western US forest fire activity” as long as there is fuel to burn.
The 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane season had 17 named
storms. That is not a record but the total accumulated energy of these storms
(a measurement based on sustained wind speed) was the highest ever. Four storms
were Category 4 or above. Total damage was almost $370 Billion.
As an aside, most of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are
still struggling with major infrastructure damage and lack of basic utilities.
The Death toll in Puerto Rico due to the hurricanes and their aftermaths was
estimated by the NY Times to be over 1,000.
Hurricane Harvey dumped record amounts of rain on Houston
when the storm stalled over the region due to a weakened jet stream which could
not push the storm out of the area.
The jet stream is weak due to a warming Arctic, which slows
west-to-east winds and thus slows the movement of weather systems across the US
and Europe. According to NOAA, a slow jet stream is increasing the incidence of
extreme weather, be it heat waves, flooding and even heavy snow fall in winter.
Remember that a warm atmosphere holds more moisture and snow can form as easily
at 30 degrees as at 15 degrees.
As of November, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere is 405.14 parts per million. Detailed analysis of geologic data
shows that the atmosphere has not had this level of CO2 since the end of the
Miocene geologic epoch – about 5 million years ago, when sea level was 100 feet
higher and Megalodon sharks which prowled the oceans made the Great
Whites seen off of Cape Cod look like guppies.
In other words, a very different planet from the one we
inhabit today . . . for the time being.
Happy holidays.
Published in the Westborough News, 12/22/2017
